Biden vs. Trump: A Historic Rematch Set for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

On the 5th of November, the American electorate will choose their next president, with the race likely seeing a repeat of the 2020 candidates: Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This rematch, the first in nearly seventy years, comes after a contentious period following the last election, including attempts by Trump's supporters to contest the result. Trump now faces federal charges related to these efforts, among other criminal cases, while Biden's term has been marked by challenges such as high inflation, significant policy initiatives, and international unrest.

With both candidates facing issues of popularity, the upcoming election seems less about choosing a favoured leader and more about deciding which candidate is deemed less unfavourable by the American public. Key dates in the electoral process include Trump's trial in Manhattan, the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, and the presidential debates, leading up to Election Day on the 5th of November. The process concludes with the inauguration on the 20th of January, 2025.

The Economic Stakes: What Each Candidate Brings to the Table

The economic policies proposed by both candidates represent starkly different visions for America's financial future. Biden's economic agenda centres on continued government investment in infrastructure, climate initiatives, and social programmes. His administration has overseen the passage of significant legislation including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, totalling over $1.5 trillion in federal spending commitments.

Trump's economic platform, meanwhile, emphasises tax cuts, deregulation, and a return to his "America First" trade policies. His previous presidency saw corporate tax rates reduced from 35% to 21%, and he has indicated plans to further reduce taxes whilst implementing substantial tariffs on imports, particularly from China. These contrasting approaches have profound implications for different sectors of the economy and investment markets.

Market Implications and Sector Analysis

Financial markets have historically shown distinct patterns depending on which party controls the White House. Under Democratic administrations, renewable energy, healthcare, and technology sectors often benefit from increased government support and regulation that favours innovation. Conversely, Republican leadership typically benefits traditional energy companies, financial services, and defence contractors through deregulation and increased military spending.

The current market environment presents unique challenges regardless of the electoral outcome. Inflation, whilst declining from its 2022 peaks of over 9%, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Interest rates, currently at their highest levels in over two decades, are expected to influence both candidates' fiscal policies significantly. A Biden victory might see continued emphasis on renewable energy investments and infrastructure spending, whilst a Trump presidency could prioritise fossil fuel production and financial sector deregulation.

International Relations and Global Investment Climate

The foreign policy differences between the candidates extend far beyond rhetoric, with tangible implications for international investors and American expatriates worldwide. Biden's multilateral approach has strengthened NATO alliances and maintained robust support for Ukraine, contributing to a more predictable international investment environment for European markets.

Trump's previous presidency demonstrated a preference for bilateral trade agreements and a more transactional approach to international relations. His criticism of NATO spending requirements and previous tensions with European allies could resurface, potentially affecting currency stability and cross-border investment flows. For American expatriates living in Europe, these policy differences could significantly impact everything from tax treaty negotiations to the ease of conducting international business.

Immigration and Investment Visa Programmes

The election outcome will substantially influence U.S. immigration policy, including investment-based visa programmes such as the EB-5 investor visa. Under Biden's administration, processing times for investment visas have remained lengthy, though the programme has seen some reforms aimed at increasing efficiency and preventing fraud.

Trump's previous presidency implemented significant restrictions on various immigration programmes, and his campaign rhetoric suggests even stricter policies ahead. This uncertainty has led many high-net-worth individuals to explore alternative citizenship by investment options in Europe, particularly programmes like the Portugal Golden Visa, which offers a pathway to European residency and eventual citizenship.

Tax Policy Implications for Expatriates

American expatriates face unique challenges regardless of who occupies the White House, as the United States remains one of the few countries that taxes citizens on worldwide income. However, the specific tax policies implemented by each administration can significantly impact expat financial planning strategies.

Biden's tax proposals include raising the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% and increasing capital gains taxes for high earners. These changes could particularly affect American expatriates with substantial investment portfolios or those considering repatriation. Trump's platform suggests maintaining or further reducing tax rates, though his previous presidency also saw increased scrutiny of offshore accounts and international tax compliance.

For expatriates living in countries with double tax treaties with the United States, understanding how potential policy changes might affect their tax obligations is crucial for effective financial planning.

The Candidates: Age, Experience, and Vision

Joe Biden, at 81, is running again, aiming to continue his political legacy amidst concerns about his age. His presidency has seen significant efforts towards expanding state support and international coalition-building, particularly in support of Ukraine. Donald Trump, at 77, continues his unconventional political path, facing numerous legal challenges while maintaining a campaign focus on familiar issues alongside grievances related to his legal battles.

The age factor represents an unprecedented element in American presidential politics, with both candidates facing questions about their fitness for office. Biden's supporters point to his legislative achievements and international diplomatic experience, whilst critics highlight moments of apparent confusion and physical frailty. Trump's legal challenges, including multiple criminal indictments, add another layer of uncertainty to his candidacy, though his base of support has remained remarkably consistent.

Polling Data and Electoral Predictions

Current polling data suggests an exceptionally close race, with most national polls showing the candidates within the margin of error. However, the American electoral system's emphasis on swing states means that national polling figures can be misleading. Key battleground states including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia are likely to determine the outcome.

Historical patterns suggest that incumbent presidents typically enjoy certain advantages, though Biden's approval ratings have fluctuated significantly throughout his presidency. Economic conditions closer to Election Day, including inflation rates, employment figures, and stock market performance, will likely influence voter sentiment more than current polling data.

Preparing Your Investment Strategy

Given the potential for significant policy changes regardless of the electoral outcome, investors should consider several strategic approaches. Diversification across sectors, geographies, and asset classes remains crucial, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and international relations.

For those considering retirement planning or international relocation, the election results could influence everything from tax treaty negotiations to the attractiveness of various expatriate destinations. European residency programmes, including options in Portugal, Spain, and Malta, may become increasingly attractive depending on U.S. policy directions.

Looking Ahead: Post-Election Scenarios

This election not only represents a critical juncture for the candidates involved but also a defining moment for American voters, who are tasked with choosing the direction of their country in these turbulent times. The outcome will reverberate through financial markets, international relations, and domestic policy for years to come.

Regardless of who wins, the deep political divisions exposed during this campaign cycle suggest that significant policy changes are likely. Investors and expatriates alike should prepare for potential volatility and consider how different scenarios might affect their long-term financial goals.

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, its outcome could have significant implications for investment strategies and financial markets globally. Navigating these uncertain times requires not only a keen eye on political developments but also a strategic approach to managing your investments. We understand the importance of staying ahead in a rapidly changing environment and invite you to discuss how the upcoming election may impact your investment portfolio.

Our team of experts is ready to provide personalised advice, helping you to adjust your strategy to safeguard and potentially enhance your financial future. Contact us for a consultation, and let's explore together the most effective ways to align your investments with the evolving political landscape.

About the Author

Oliver Turner — Cross-Border Financial Planner. Oliver is a cross-border financial planner specialising in US retirement accounts for Americans living in Europe. He helps expats navigate FATCA compliance, IRA and 401(k) management from abroad, and US-EU tax treaty planning.